Win totals, Futures, and More!
The conversation of “Is the SEC is still the measuring stick for college football” is at it’s peak. In the new landscape of college football, Georgia’s dynasty push, Alabama’s post-Saban identity, Texas and Oklahoma crashing the party — it’s a new-look conference, but the stakes are as high as ever. In this breakdown, we’ll dive into win totals, futures, and the value hiding in plain sight across the South’s Saturday showdowns.
Alabama Crimson Tide
Date
Opponent (Location)
Aug 30, 2025 — @ Florida St
Sep 6, 2025 — vs UL Monroe
Sep 13, 2025 — vs Wisconsin
Sep 27, 2025 — @ Georgia
Oct 4, 2025 — vs Vanderbilt
Oct 11, 2025 — at Missouri
Oct 18, 2025 — vs Tennessee
Oct 25, 2025 — at South Carolina
Nov 8, 2025 — vs LSU
Nov 15, 2025 — vs Oklahoma
Nov 22, 2025 — vs Eastern Il
Nov 29, 2025 — @ Auburn
Projected win total: Over/under 9.5 wins.
Over -110
Under +100
Top Storylines: This is Kalen DeBoer’s second season, and expectations are high for a playoff spot after a 9-4 record in his debut12. The team faces a major question at quarterback with the departure of Jalen Milroe, needing a permanent replacement to emerge23. The defense is also transitioning under new coordinator Kane Wommack4.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Ty Simpson is the presumed starter, a former five-star prospect who has a chance to shine in the DeBoer-Grubb system. True freshman 5-star QB Keelon Russell is waiting in the wings
◦ WR Ryan Williams dazzled as a freshman in 2024 and is primed for an even bigger season He’s complemented by WR Germie Bernard, who nearly eclipsed 800 yards last year
Jam Miller, Richard Young, and Daniel Hill. Jam Miller is projected to be the lead back, with Young and Hill competing for the second spot.
◦ The offensive line is strong with the return of left tackle Kadyn Proctor (a unanimous All-SEC selection) and center Parker Brailsford
◦ DL Tim Keenan III is an experienced third-year starter
◦ Defensive leaders include safety Keon Sabb, cornerback Domani Jackson, and linebacker Deontae Lawson
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 9-3 (ESPN Computer)3, 10-2 (Longhorns Wire)13.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +480.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports suggests a best-case 12-0 if everything goes right on their daunting schedule, but a worst-case 8-4 if they stumble early against teams like Florida State or Wisconsin1416.
◦ Athlon Sports predicts a playoff spot, citing a prolific offense and strong receiving corps1, with the defense expected to be even better4.
◦ One expert considers Alabama overvalued for the SEC title at +480, believing they are still a year away from serious national championship contention with Russell at QB
Eric: I’m going to lean over on this one due to the schedule. Deboer is still too much of an unknown for me to bet it. But it’s hard to see 3 losses. They won’t lose to Vandy or a similar loss like that they had last year. But I could see them slipping up against a high- mid tier team they’re supposed to beat.
Mike: If they nail the qb decision I Iike the over. They’re avoiding Texas and Ole Miss this year, and other than Georgia and Auburn, their toughest games are at home. They’re returning 17 seniors and DeBoer has another year to settle in.
Stefan: Lean Over, not official – I loved Milroe and they struggled – want to learn more about deBoer, is he the real deal?
Arkansas Razorbacks
Date
Opponent (Location)
Aug 30, 2025 — vs Alabama A&M
Sep 6, 2025 — vs Arkansas State
Sep 13, 2025 — @ Ole Miss
Sep 20, 2025 — @ Memphis
Sep 27, 2025 — vs Notre Dame
Oct 11, 2025 — @ Tennessee
Oct 18, 2025 — vs Texas A&M
Oct 25, 2025 — vs Auburn
Nov 1, 2025 — vs MS St
Nov 15, 2025 — @ LSU
Nov 22, 2025 — @ Texas
Nov 22, 2025 — vs Missouri
Projected win total: Over/under 5.5 wins.
Over +108
Under -132
Offense: Expect transfer portal movement at QB again. Run game must carry them early.
Defense: Solid linebackers but depth concerns on the line.
Coaching: Pittman could be coaching for his job.
Betting storylines: Memphis trip is a trap; three SEC road trips in a row make 6 wins feel high.
Top Storylines: Arkansas faces a tough schedule and a significant roster overhaul, especially at wide receiver18. The team needs to dramatically improve its pass defense19.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Taylen Green is back for his second season as an SEC starter and is expected to be even better working with offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino
◦ RB Braylen Russell is primed for a breakout year.
◦ The receiving corps features transfers like WR O’Mega Blake (Charlotte) and WR Kam Shanks (UAB), with Shanks leading the nation in punt return yards last year22.
◦ Linebackers Stephen Dix and Xavian Sorey are key returners, and tight end Rohan Jones joins as an FCS All-American transfer2223.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 6-6 (ESPN Computer)24, 7-5 (Longhorns Wire)25.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +200001526.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports notes a best-case 8-4 if Green plays like a Heisman contender, but a worst-case 3-9 due to multiple top-15 opponents and tough road games26.
◦ Athlon Sports predicts a bowl game, but acknowledges the challenging path due to the tough schedule and roster overhaul1827.
Mike : Schedule is brutal – Ole miss, tennessee, LSU and Texas all on the road. In order to hit this I have them need ⅔ wins vs A&M, Auburn, and Mizzou and I don’t see it happening. 42 players out, 32 players in – that’s a lot to get reintegratied into the culture and offense – and idk that Sam Pittman is the guy to be able to do that.
Eric: Leaning under. Petrino just chillin waiting to take that job. I think they’d have to beat Notre Dame to hit this over.
Stefan: Over but not a play, cant trust Pittman, but I think the Home schedule gives hope. Could see 6 games.
Auburn Tigers
Opponent (Location)
August 30: @ Baylor
September 6: vs. Ball State
September 13: vs. South Alabama
September 20: @ Oklahoma
September 27: @ Texas A&M
October 11: vs. Georgia
October 18: vs. Missouri
October 25: @ Arkansas
November 1: vs. Kentucky
November 8: @ Vanderbilt
November 22: vs. Mercer
November 29: vs. Alabama
Projected win total: Over/under 7.5 wins.
Over -160 (draft kings)
Under +134
Offense: Freeze’s system can pop, but the QB room has to deliver consistency.
Defense: Physical enough to hang in big games, but pass rush depth is shallow.
Coaching: Pressure to prove Year 3 shows real progress.
Betting storylines:
Top Storylines: Head coach Hugh Freeze needs the team’s improved talent level to translate into a winning record after consecutive losing season. Consistent quarterback play is crucial, with Jackson Arnold taking the reins
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Jackson Arnold, an Oklahoma transfer and former five-star, is considered a major upgrade at the position
◦ The receiving corps is a strength, featuring breakout freshman WR Cam Coleman (a unanimous All-SEC selection) and Georgia Tech transfer WR Eric Singleton Jr., known for his elite speed.
◦ DL Keldric Faulk is one of the SEC’s top defensive linemen
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 7-5 (ESPN Computer)39, 5-7 (Longhorns Wire)40.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +20001541.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports sees a best-case 9-3, but a worst-case 5-7 if they fail to win expected games
◦ One expert considers Auburn undervalued at +2000 for the SEC title, suggesting they could be a sleeper pick for the CFP due to Arnold’s upgrade and a formidable defense
Mike : This team has talent. PFF has them as the 2nd most talented WR room in the country. The question in Jackson Arnold. Oklahoma had an atrocious offensive line last year – 92nd in pass blocked and 109th in run blocking. Now he’s behind a top 10 o-line with some studs around him – this team could flash this year and this Iron Bowl is going to be a blast. I’ll bet the over.
Stefan: Over, official. JArnold, I still believe. Talent at skill positions.
Eric: I can’t bet this. Too many wild cards. On the road at OU and Baylor, two heavy defense minded team in their home stadiums. Go to vandy, Pavia has beaten Auburn twice at two different schools. So I see 3 gimme non con games, and 3 SEC home wins. Then I don’t trust Hugh Freeze enough to get two more wins.
Florida Gators
Date
Opponent (Location)
Aug 30: vs. Long Island
Sept 6: vs. South Florida
Sept 13: @ LSU
Sept 20: @ Miami
Oct 4: vs. Texas
Oct 11: @ Texas A&M
Oct 18: vs. Mississippi State
Nov 1: vs. Georgia
Nov 8: @ Kentucky
Nov 15: @ Ole Miss
Nov 22: vs. Tennessee
Nov 29: vs. Florida State
Projected win total: Over/under 7.5 wins.
Over +108
Under -132
Offense: QB situation likely hits the portal again. Napier’s run-first system must do more.
Defense: Better in spots, but depth still an issue.
Coaching: Make-or-break year — fans expect more than 6–6.
Betting storylines: Miami and UCF mean bragging rights — but Georgia, Texas, LSU mean pain.
Top Storylines: The development of QB DJ Lagway is central to Florida’s hopes of returning to national prominence and securing Bill Napier’s job security. The Gators face another tough schedule.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB DJ Lagway is a gifted sophomore with unlimited promise and a high ceiling when healthy. He is supported by one of the SEC’s top offensive lines21….
◦ OL Jake Slaughter is a top returning interior offensive lineman who allowed only one sack last season36….
◦ WR Eugene Wilson III is a talented redshirt sophomore poised for a bounce-back season if healthy44….
◦ On defense, DL Tyreak Sapp and Caleb Banks are key returners3654.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 6-6 (ESPN Computer)45, 8-4 (Longhorns Wire)55.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +22001546.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 10-2, which would likely secure a playoff berth given the tough schedule, but a worst-case 6-6 due to brutal road games early in the season46.
◦ Athlon Sports notes optimism due to Lagway’s development and the defense’s late-season improvement in 2024
◦ One expert views Florida as overvalued at +1800 for the SEC title, despite being a popular sleeper pick, due to their challenging schedule
Mike : Napier is 19-19 as a head coach at Florida and I just don’t believe in him. DJ lagway is clearly an athletic freak, but he needs to make a big leap forward for this team to make a big splash. He had less than a 50% completion rate beyond 10 yards and had a 12-9 TD/INT ratio. Fantastic line on both side of the ball. If the run game take a leap forward and Lagway improves, they could have some surprises up their sleeve. No Bet.
Stefan: I like the talent, I like the coach. still go Under, not official. No outcome would really surprise me
Eric: Staying away. Schedule is brutal. If they lose to Miami, they could lose 4 in a row and Napier could be fired mid season. But they could also go 2-2 in that stretch and have a really good season. Still too close on the win total for me.
Georgia Bulldogs
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs. Marshall
September 6: vs. Austin Peay
September 13: @ Tennessee
September 27: vs. Alabama
October 4: vs. Kentucky
October 11: @ Auburn
October 18: vs. Ole Miss
November 1: @ Florida (Jacksonville)
November 8: @ Mississippi State
November 15: vs. Texas
November 22: vs. Charlotte
November 29: @ Georgia Tech (Atlanta)
Projected win total: Over/under 9.5 wins.
Over -168
Under +136
Offense: New starting QB but elite depth everywhere else.
Defense: Top 5 in the country until proven otherwise.
Coaching: Kirby’s machine runs itself now — SEC title or bust.
Betting storylines: Road trips at Bama and Texas, plus Cocktail Party. Any slip and the Over is dead.
Top Storylines: The biggest change is the turnover at quarterback with Gunner Stockton stepping in for Carson Beck, who transferred5758. Georgia has only seven returning starters, leading to more preseason questions than usual for Kirby Smart’s program359.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Gunner Stockton is a redshirt sophomore who the coaches have confidence in, despite limited snaps against elite defenses11….
◦ The receiving corps is transformed by transfers WR Noah Thomas (Texas A&M) and WR Zachariah Branch (USC), both explosive playmakers.
◦ Linebacker CJ Allen (a unanimous All-SEC selection) headlines a deep unit11….
◦ DL Christian Miller is a key returning defensive lineman67.
◦ Safety KJ Bolden is expected to be the next star in the secondary (an All-SEC selection)3666.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 10-2 (ESPN Computer)3, 11-1 (Longhorns Wire)68.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +3101569.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 12-0 if they conquer their tough home schedule, positioning them for the playoff, but a worst-case 8-4 if Stockton and the offense falter69.
◦ Athlon Sports predicts Georgia will still be in the mix to win it all, but highlights offensive concerns at QB, OL, and run game59.
◦ One expert notes Georgia’s immense talent but points to QB as the biggest question mark and the need for their run defense to improve70.
Mike: Homer pick – I’ll go over if I can find it at 150. I’m in on Gunner Stockton. He has grit and instinct. Georgia was 102nd in the ground game last year – that’s unlikely to repeat itself and they brought it Phil Rauscher from the NFL to help solve this problem. They also led the nation in drops with pass catchers. Zachariah Branch coming in from USC and Noah Thomas from A&M are expected to be a massive uptick from Dominick Lovett and Arian Smith. Lots of change here, but the toughest games are at home.
Stefan: I have not liked UGA’s QB or WR room in a while, but they still win at a stupid rate. I love the addition of Z Branch this year!. Not picking against them – also not picking them. Lean over.
Eric – Might bet the kids college tuition on the over. Where’s the loss with Texas in Athen as a revenge game?…Also I’ll take the +310 to win the SEC.
Kentucky Wildcats
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs. Toledo
September 6: vs. Ole Miss
September 13: vs. Eastern Michigan
September 27: @South Carolina
October 4: @ Georgia
October 18: vs. Texas
October 25: vs. Tennessee
November 1: @ Auburn
November 8: vs. Florida
November 15: vs. Tennessee Tech
November 22: @ Vanderbilt
November 29: @ Louisville
Projected win total: Over/under 4.5 wins.
Over -118
Under -104
Offense: Ground game still the identity — QB situation remains week-to-week.
Defense: Stoops’ unit rarely gets blown out.
Coaching: The safest floor in the East, as always.
Betting storylines: If they steal one from Texas or Bama, Over looks great.
Top Storylines: This feels like a crucial year for coach Mark Stoops, following a disappointing 4-8 record in 2024 and significant roster losses7172. The depth chart is decimated, and the team is relying on immediate contributions from transfer acquisitions73.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Zach Calzada, a seasoned transfer from Incarnate Word (previously Texas A&M/Auburn), is expected to start72….
◦ The running back group is a strength, with Dante Dowdell, Jamarion Wilcox, and Seth McGowan competing for carries73.
◦ Transfers like DL David Gusta and Edge Sam Greene are expected to factor prominently into the defensive line rebuild73.
◦ TE Josh Kattus and Willie Rodriguez will likely get most targets76.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 6-6 (ESPN Computer)24, 4-8 (Longhorns Wire)77.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +300001578.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports lists a best-case 6-6 if Calzada performs well and they win manageable league contests, but a worst-case 3-9 due to a weak roster and 7-8 games against top-25 opponents78.
◦ Athlon Sports notes the program is “in flux” and highlights the extensive use of the transfer portal to re-tool the roster7173.
◦ One expert’s best bet is the “Under 4.5” wins for Kentucky, suggesting the “bottom is about to fall out” due to the complete roster restructure in a tough SEC conference
Mike: Kentucky is always the team that has a surprise up it’s sleeve – they almost got Georgia last year in an excruciatingly boring game. This defense ranked 32nd in total yards allowed last year. They have 50 new faces in the building between transfers and freshman, but a lot of the defense is returning and the DLine is expected to be improved. Assuming they take care of the cupcakes, they need 2 wins against SC, Tenn, Florida, Vandy, and and Ole Miss. The over is temping but no play.
Eric: No thoughts on Kentucky this year. Which is too bad because they’ve been a fun wildcad the last decade.
Stefan: Only 2 sure thing wins – I dont see how they get to 5. I am on Under – I will be sweating Kentucky vs Vandy late November.
LSU Tigers
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: @ Clemson
September 6: vs. Louisiana Tech
September 13: vs. Florida
September 20: vs. Southeastern Louisiana
September 27: @ Ole Miss
October 11: vs. South Carolina
October 18: @ Vanderbilt
October 25: vs. Texas A&M
November 8: @ Alabama
November 15: vs. Arkansas
November 22: vs. Western Kentucky
November 29: @ Oklahoma
Projected win total: Over/under 8.5 wins.
Over -130
Under +106
Offense: Always talented — QB, WR, RB pipeline never runs dry.
Defense: Must tighten up big-play leaks.
Coaching: Brian Kelly must deliver consistency.
Betting storylines: Clemson and Bama define the ceiling.
Top Storylines: The 2025 season is crucial for Brian Kelly’s tenure in Baton Rouge, with a playoff spot being the expectation81. LSU needs to overcome its struggles in season openers under Kelly (0-3 record). The offensive line is replacing four starters8184.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Garrett Nussmeier is arguably the best pocket passer in college football, returning for his senior year. He’s a Heisman Trophy favorite and predicted to be the SEC Player of the Year81….
◦ The receiving corps is stocked with talent, including leading receiver Aaron Anderson, speedy transfer Nic Anderson (Oklahoma), and Barion Brown (Kentucky transfer, All-Purpose All-SEC selection)36….
◦ LB Whit Weeks is a preseason All-American36….
◦ Transfers like DL Jack Pyburn and Bernard Gooden, along with five-star freshman DB DJ Pickett, are expected to boost the defense96.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 8-4 (ESPN Computer)39, 8-4 (Longhorns Wire)55.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +7001597.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 11-1 scenario, especially with the nation’s top-ranked transfer portal class, but a worst-case 6-6 could lead to a “major job vacancy” for Kelly8297.
◦ Athlon Sports emphasizes the playoff expectation and Nussmeier’s talent, noting the need to improve the rushing attack and revamp the offensive line81.
◦ One expert’s best bet for winning the SEC is LSU at +700, citing Nussmeier’s experience as a key advantage over other contenders7986.
Mike: Big Nussmeier fan and he’s claiming they don’t have a single receiver that runs over a 4.4 The OLine is completely revamped after losing ⅘ from last year. Run game last year was already 102nd in the country, but they brought in a new run game coordinator to fix that. If they see progress there and this new offensive line can start hot this could be a fun team this year.
Stefan: I am a sit back and enjoy on this one. Love the offense as always. Can they get enough stops? +3.5 @ Clemson to start the year,.
Eric: LSU to make the playoff at +125. The only guaranteed loss I see on their schedule is Bama. A lot of other coinflips and tough games, but they can probably miss the SEC title game and still make the playoffs at 9-3.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: @ Southern Miss
September 6: vs. Arizona State
September 13: vs. Alcorn State
September 20: vs. Northern Illinois
September 27: vs. Tennessee
October 4: @ Texas A&M
October 18: @ Florida
October 25: vs. Texas
November 1: @ Arkansas
November 8: vs. Georgia
November 15: @ Missouri
November 29: vs. Ole Miss
Projected win total: Over/under 3.5 wins.
Over -150
Under +122
Offense: New staff wants to run tempo again — but who’s the QB?
Defense: Not deep enough for shootouts.
Coaching: Patience needed in Starkville.
Betting storylines: Survive September or bust.
Top Storylines: In Jeff Lebby’s second year, the Bulldogs aim to improve on a winless SEC record from 202472…. A significant roster overhaul and scheme shift are underway, with the offensive line needing marked improvement113. The defense can only go one way (up) after a disastrous 2024 season114.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Blake Shapen, a fifth-year senior, is back and healthy after missing most of 2024 due to injury..
◦ RB Fluff Bothwell (South Alabama transfer) joins a loaded backfield
◦ The receiving room sees new faces like Brenen Thompson (Oklahoma transfer, elite speed) and Anthony Evans III (Georgia transfer).
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 4-8 (ESPN Computer)112, 3-9 (Longhorns Wire)117.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +3000015118.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports lists a best-case 5-7 if early games provide momentum, but a worst-case 2-10 if they experience another winless SEC season.
◦ Athlon Sports expects progress on offense under Lebby but warns a tough schedule will prevent major improvement in the win column
◦ The Longhorns Wire calls them the “doormat of the SEC” and predicts they will likely lose every conference game
Mike: No comment. This defense ranked 125th in the nation last year giving up 36 points a game, but they’ve completely overhauled. Until I see improvement I like opponents TTO.
Stefan: Lean under, but the non-con could get them their 4. No play.
Eric: They could possibly not have a winning record in their non con.Then they won’t win an SEC game, so I lean under here.
Missouri Tigers
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 28: vs Central Arkansas.
September 6: vs Kansas.
September 13: vs Louisiana.
September 20: vs South Carolina.
September 27: vs UMass
October 11: vs Alabama.
October 18: @ Auburn.
October 25: @ Vanderbilt.
November 8: vs Texas A&M.
November 15: vs Mississippi State.
November 22: @ Oklahoma.
November 29: @ Arkansas.
Projected win total: Over/under wins.
Over – 7.5
Under
Offense: Good depth at QB/WR — should stay balanced.
Defense: Front 7 solid, must replace some DBs.
Coaching: Drinkwitz buying himself time with bowl seasons.
Betting storylines: Mid-table SEC team — Over hinges on BC and home splits.
Top Storylines: Many of Missouri’s offensive stars have departed, so replacements need to step up despite being less experienced. The quarterback position is a significant question mark for the fall
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Beau Pribula (Penn State transfer) is athletic and has high potential, but is unproven as a full-time starter
◦ RB Ahmad Hardy (ULM transfer) joins the backfield to balance the offense
◦ WR Kevin Coleman Jr. (Mississippi State transfer) is a gifted receiver and the top returning receiver in yards in the SEC.
◦ The defense should be solid, with key players like LB Triston Newson, DL Chris McClellan, and DB Daylan Carnell48126. Georgia transfer Damon Wilson II boosts the edge45127.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 7-5 (ESPN Computer)45, 5-7 (Longhorns Wire)77.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +800015121.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports sees a best-case 10-2 under Eli Drinkwitz, a “blue-collar program” that often hangs around the top 20, but a worst-case 5-7 that would require several unexpected losses121128.
◦ Athlon Sports positions them as a dark horse for a playoff run due to intriguing talent and a favorable schedule, but highlights the QB question mark37119.
◦ The Longhorns Wire notes Missouri won many close games last season and predicts that “lightning doesn’t usually strike the same place twice,” leading to a step back
Mike: I want to like the over so bad we just don’t know anything about what’s happening at QB. It’s a favorable schedule missing Georgia, Texas, and LSU in conference play. This team is always looming in the back of the top 25 and I expect the same until Drinkwitz can prove it otherwise.
Eric: If you like Auburn and Vandy this season, then the under is the play. Kansas is not a gimme for them either. Overall a schedule they could win 7 games or 11 games.
Stefan: Lean Under, they lose Luther Burden, he was their offense when they were good
Oklahoma Sooners
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs Illinois State
September 6: vs Michigan
September 13: @ Temple
September 20: vs Auburn
October 4: vs Kent State
October 11: vs. Texas (in Dallas)
October 18: @ South Carolina
October 25: vs Ole Miss
November 1: @ Tennessee
November 15: @ Alabama
November 22: vs Missouri
November 29: vs LSU
Projected win total: Over/under 6.5 wins.
Over -178
Under +144
Offense: Venables has weapons, but SEC lines wear you down fast.
Defense: Better than Big 12 days, but still learning SEC grind.
Coaching: Must prove they belong in big-boy league.
Betting storylines: LSU, Texas, Bama all key swing games.
Top Storylines: Coach Brent Venables is “squarely on the hot seat” after two losing records in three years. The team needs its offensive line and receiving corps to step up after injury-plagued 2024 campaigns. How QB John Mateer adapts to tougher SEC defenses is a key unknown. The narrative has shifted from “adjusting” to “competing” in their second year in the SEC
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB John Mateer (Washington State transfer) leads the rebuilt QB room, is a dual-threat, and was the most desired QB in the transfer portal. He is also predicted to be the SEC Newcomer of the Year
◦ RB Jaydn Ott (California transfer) is a major gain who adds a big-play threat to the backfield.
◦ WR Deion Burks (Purdue transfer) is a shifty slot receiver who is healthy and expected to make a huge difference
◦ DL R Mason Thomas leads one of the SEC’s top defensive lines and is a rising star.
◦ Senior safety Robert Spears-Jennings steps into a leadership role in the secondary
◦ Ben Arbuckle is the new offensive coordinator, bringing a high-flying, quarterback-friendly system.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 7-5 (ESPN Computer)132, 8-4 (Longhorns Wire)141.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +2400
Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 10-2, but a worst-case 5-7 could lead to “further disarray” for the program
◦ Athlon Sports highlights Mateer’s importance and the expectation that the defense will be even better under Venables’ play-calling.
Mike: Very intrigued what happens here with Aurbuckle and Mateer coming in. Mateer showed loads of talent at Wazzou, but does it translate to the SEC? Tough schedule with michigan, bama, texas and LSU. The offensive line play was laughable last year but they are expected to show quite a bit of improvement. No bet for me, but intrigued.
Stefan: No play, lean over but not betting it at -178
Ole Miss Rebels
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs. Georgia State
September 6: @ Kentucky
September 13: vs. Arkansas
September 20: vs. Tulane
September 27: vs. LSU
October 11: vs. Washington State
October 18: @ Georgia
October 25: @ Oklahoma
November 1: vs. South Carolina
November 8: vs. The Citadel
November 15: vs. Florida.
November 29: @ Mississippi State
Projected win total: Over/under 8.5 wins.
Over -138
Under +112
Offense: Lane Kiffin will portal-shop the QB if needed.
Defense: Improved under Golding but needs playmakers.
Coaching: Lane’s offense is good for fireworks but volatility.
Betting storylines: Swing games vs LSU, Georgia, OU.
Top Storylines: Lane Kiffin’s “Portal King” status is being tested with a massive rebuild on both sides of the ball due to roster departures9899. The development of QB Austin Simmons in his first season as the lead will be crucial98100.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Austin Simmons is a redshirt sophomore and two-sport star who is stepping into the lead role after learning behind Jaxson Dart.
◦ WR Cayden Lee leads a revamped receiving corps after tallying 57 receptions for 874 yards in 2024. Transfers De’Zhaun Stribling and Harrison Wallace provide proven production
◦ Safety Dillon Thieneman is highlighted as a top safety107108.
◦ Edge Princewill Umanmielen, and linebackers TJ Dottery and Suntarine Perkins are key defensive players90….
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 8-4 (ESPN Computer)100, 8-4 (Longhorns Wire)109.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +160015110.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports notes a best-case 11-1 due to a favorable home schedule, but a worst-case 6-6 if they suffer stunning losses to lower-ranked teams.
◦ Athlon Sports states that Simmons is a big reason for optimism, but Kiffin faces a major rebuild, especially with concerns in the secondary.
Mike: No bet – there’s too much change here. Austin Simmons looks like he has plenty of talent but is it enough to settle this team to some consistency. I expect a step back and no twitter campaigns beggin for a playoff spot from Lane.
Eric: Ole Miss over 8.5. That schedule is VERY forgiving. The only top tier players they get are LSU at home and Georgia on the road. Hard to see them dropping 2 more games to Kentucky, Arkansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, then ending with two teams that could be in shambles at the end of the year, Florida and Miss State. It might just be 9 wins, but it feels like those 9 wins are a lock.
Stefan: Lean Under, losing so much 8 starters to draft and still under-performed last year. Was gonna lock it in, but the more I researched the less confident I feel.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 31: vs. Virginia Tech (in Atlanta)
September 6: vs. South Carolina State
September 13: vs. Vanderbilt
September 20: @ Missouri
September 27: vs. Kentucky
October 11: @ LSU
October 18: vs. Oklahoma
October 25: vs. Alabama
November 1: @ Ole Miss
November 15: @ Texas A&M
November 22: vs. Coastal Carolina
November 29: vs. Clemson
Projected win total: Over/under 7.5 wins.
Over +106
Under -130
Defense: Physical but depth an issue late in season.
Coaching: Beamer needs bowl bid to quiet hot seat talk.
Betting storylines: NC State and Clemson make or break a 6-win push.
Top Storylines: South Carolina finished 2024 strong and is poised for another postseason run in 2025. However, there are holes to fill on what was a dominant defense144.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB LaNorris Sellers is a “dominant dual threat” with a “rocket arm” and a high ceiling, showing significant growth as a passer in 2024 and noted for his first-round draft potential in 202690….
◦ Edge Dylan Stewart is a rising star and a key defensive piece (an All-SEC selection and a top-25 player in the SEC).
◦ WR Nyck Harbor is a breakout candidate who needs to fulfill his potential.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 7-5 (ESPN Computer)132, 10-2 (Longhorns Wire)68.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +2800.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports notes a best-case 10-2 could surge them into the national title conversation, but a worst-case 5-7 due to a tough five-game stretch against ranked opponents111151.
◦ Athlon Sports highlights Sellers as a big reason for optimism but points out the work coordinator Clayton White has to do to maintain the defense’s high level after departures
Mike: I really like the over here. They were ranked 11th in opp points allowed giving up just 18 ppg and only gave up more than 20 points 3 times. They lost a lot of defense, but bring back Dylan Stewart and had a successful transfer class on the DLine. LaNorris Sellers won offensive freshman of the year and I expect improvement there, and he’s got good weapons in Mazeo Bennett Jr. and Nyck Harbor.
Stefan: Want the Over, and they will start out hot! But they have a tricky end of the season, Clemson and Oct 11- Nov 15 could be trouble!
Tennessee Volunteers
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs Syracuse
September 6: vs ETSU
September 13: vs Georgia
September 20: vs UAB
September 27: @ Mississippi State
October 11: vs Arkansas
October 18: @ Alabama
October 25: @ Kentucky
November 1: vs Oklahoma
November 15: vs New Mexico State
November 22: @ Florida
November 29: vs Vanderbilt
Projected win total: Over/under 8.5 wins.
Over +104
Under -128
Offense: Heupel’s system stays explosive, QB will be young but talented.
Defense: Needs to tackle better in big games.
Coaching: Playoff expectations starting to grow.
Betting storylines: Bama, Georgia, Oklahoma all likely losses — must sweep rest.
Top Storylines: The departure of QB Nico Iamaleava leaves a major void in the offense100…. The Volunteers face an unproven receiving corps and need to replace four starters on the offensive line100152.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Joey Aguilar (Appalachian State/UCLA transfer) fills the QB void, bringing experience but also a history of turnovers.
◦ WR Mike Matthews (a former five-star recruit) looks primed to seize a starring role.
◦ TE Miles Kitselman may lead the team in receiving
◦ CB Jermod McCoy is a preseason All-America candidate who is expected to return after a torn ACL
◦ Safety Boo Carter is an all-purpose threat
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 9-3 (ESPN Computer)100, 8-4 (Longhorns Wire)109.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +310015157.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports suggests a best-case 10-2 if Aguilar is a difference-maker, but a worst-case 7-5 due to challenging road contests and a tough opener157.
◦ Athlon Sports notes that a favorable schedule and Heupel’s ability to adapt will be tested after Iamaleava’s departure152. The defense is coming off its best season
Mike: Another interesting one. They obviously lost Iamaleava, but they also lost Dylan Sampson and James Pearce JR, and they’ll have 4 new offensive lineman currently projected as 9th in the SEC. I expect a step back, but outside of Georgia and Bama they miss the remaining power houses. No bet.
Eric: Staying away. They could start 5-1 , so I think they’ll get some hype and possibly turn this into a season. But the possibility of that getting derailed by Alabama followed by two road games has me staying away.
Stefan: Under. Sorry! Season, in my mind comes down to beating Oklahoma and Florida – if they win both the over hits, I don’t think they will.
Texas Longhorns
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: @ Ohio State
September 6: vs. San Jose State
September 13: vs. UTEP
September 20: vs Sam Houston
October 4: @ Florida
October 11: vs. Oklahoma (in Dallas)
October 18: @ Kentucky
October 25: @ Mississippi State
November 1: vs. Vanderbilt
November 15: @ Georgia
November 22: vs. Arkansas
November 29: vs. Texas A&M
Projected win total: Over/under 9.5 wins.
Over -196
Under +159
Offense: Loaded with skill talent, QB depth is top shelf.
Defense: Good enough to win shootouts.
Coaching: Sark must cash in now that they’re SEC-rich.
Betting storylines: OSU + Georgia + OU + A&M stretch sets the ceiling.
Top Storylines: The highly anticipated Arch Manning era is finally here, with high expectations for the quarterback58…. The Longhorns need to replace four new blockers on the offensive line61…. Texas is on the cusp of a national championship163.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Arch Manning (redshirt sophomore) is taking over as the starter, and is a former national top recruit with high potential11….
◦ LB Anthony Hill Jr. (a five-star recruit and unanimous All-SEC selection) and Edge Colin Simmons (a top-15 recruit and All-SEC selection) are elite defensive headliners8….
◦ WR Ryan Wingo leads a promising young receiving corps and already has chemistry with Manning36….
◦ The backfield features RB Tre Wisner and a healthy CJ Baxter162.
◦ TE Jack Endries (Cal transfer) is a plug-and-play starter170.
◦ DB Michael Taaffe is a valuable leader in the secondary (an All-SEC selection)11….
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 10-2 (ESPN Computer)161, 11-1 (Longhorns Wire)172.
◦ FanDuel Win Total Over/Under: 9.5172.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +29015163.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 12-0, highlighting the strong defense and Manning’s potential, but a worst-case 8-4 if Manning struggles or suffers an early injury163164.
◦ Athlon Sports predicts Texas to win the SEC Championship, citing Steve Sarkisian’s ability to elevate the program and a stocked roster162.
◦ One expert rates Texas No. 1 in their power rankings and agrees they are the favorite to win the SEC and National Championship
Mike: This isn’t the hardest schedule in the conference by any means, but there are some loseable games. Outside of Georgia, they miss Bama, LSU, Tenn, Ole Miss, SC and Auburn. The juice isn’t even worth considering, but this is going to be exactly what’s expected. They’ll come into the SEC championship game no worse than 10-2 – realistically 11-1 or 12-0, and then we’ll see what happens.
Eric: I think they get bet up pretty good by Ohio State and Georgia this year. Sark got outcoached byt ASU in the playoff game and barely escaped. While those might be the only two lossed, the red river game is too unpredictable to bet the whole season the win total.
Stefan: Lean Under and at +159 its a SidePiece, 4 brutal road/neutral tests (includind OU in Dallas). Then A&M.
Texas A&M Aggies
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs. UTSA
September 6: vs. Utah State
September 13: @ Notre Dame
September 27: vs. Auburn
October 4: vs. Mississippi State
October 11: vs. Florida
October 18: @ Arkansas
October 25: @ LSU
November 8: @ Missouri
November 15: vs. South Carolina
November 22: vs. Samford
November 29: @ Texas
Projected win total: Over/under 7.5 wins.
Over -170
Under +158
Top Storylines: Mike Elko’s second year as head coach, aiming for a steady run game and more weapons for QB Marcel Reed164. A key question is whether Elko can make the necessary defensive adjustments after losing key players up front144174.
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Marcel Reed shifted the Aggies’ fortunes last season and returns as the clear No. 1. He’s a good runner but needs to develop as a passer84….
◦ The offensive line should be among the best in college football with all five starters returning178. OL Ar’maj Reed-Adams is a blue-chip guard and a unanimous All-SEC selection36….
◦ The backfield is deep, headlined by Le’Veon Moss and Rueben Owens178. Moss is considered a candidate for the best running back in the SEC12.
◦ Receiving corps additions include KC Concepcion (NC State transfer, an electric playmaker and All-SEC selection) and Mario Craver (Mississippi State transfer)
Mike: I love Mike Elko. I think he’s a phenomenal coach and I do expect this team to take a step forward with the help of the schedule. Obviously the question is does Marcel Reed develop. The run game should have a ton of success and their offensive line returns all 5 starters. Defensively they were top 40 in the nation in points allowed. Rock solid and a lot of that returns this year. If Marcel reed can take a step forward and they could make an interesting push.
Eric: This is schedule is crazy favorable. They just need to beat LSU, Notre Dame or Texas….just one of them, and I think this is a shoe in playoff team. I’ll take a +210 bet that they go get revenge at Notre Dame. The rest of the schedule is an absolute cake walk.
Vanderbilt Commodores
Date
Opponent (Location)
August 30: vs Charleston Southern
September 6: @ Virginia Tech
September 13: @ South Carolina
September 20: vs Georgia State
September 27: vs Utah State
October 4: @ Alabama
October 18: vs LSU
October 25: vs Missouri
November 1: @ Texas
November 8: vs Auburn
November 22: vs Kentucky
November 29: @ Tennessee
Projected win total: Over/under 4.5 wins.
Over -192
Under +154
Offense: Will always need the portal to stay relevant.
Defense: Depth thin vs SEC lines.
Coaching: Clark Lea still playing the long game.
Betting storylines: Army, UNLV, South Alabama must all hit or it’s another cellar season.
Top Storylines: Clark Lea’s management of the defense has led to significant improvement, but despite quarterback Diego Pavia’s return, a tough schedule makes bowl eligibility a real question1971. Pavia has expressed intentions to win a national championship
• Key Players to Watch:
◦ QB Diego Pavia (a graduate student) revived the Commodores in 2024 with his swagger, stats, and leadership, earning a top-25 player selection11….
◦ TE Eli Stowers (New Mexico State transfer) is arguably the “most dangerous pro-style tight end in the country” (a unanimous All-SEC selection and a top-25 player)8….
◦ Safety Randon Fontenette is one of the best in the SEC1171.
• Implied Win Totals:
◦ Projected record: 5-7 (ESPN Computer)112, 5-7 (Longhorns Wire)184.
◦ FanDuel Win Total Over/Under: 4.5.
◦ FanDuel Odds to win conference title: +30000.
• Predictions:
◦ CBS Sports offers a best-case 9-3 if Pavia’s confidence translates to wins in tough road games, but a worst-case 4-8 given the challenging schedule against teams seeking revenge188194.
◦ Athlon Sports highlights the major impact of Pavia and the coaching changes, but notes the need for more playmakers and concern over a revamped offensive line189.
◦ The Longhorns Wire predicts Vanderbilt will “take a step back to normalcy” after a “remarkable” 2024 season
Mike: They only need 2 conference wins to cash the over here but again it’s just not worth it at -190. They return 9 starters on defense, its year 2 under OC Tim Beck, they expect a leap forward on the OLine and similar production out of the RB core. I don’t know that we’ll see anymore Alabama upsets, but could be another fun one.
Eric: I’m not betting this, I’ll just say I think the Pavia magic comes to end this year and his career closes out. Hell of a run tho.
Stefan: Lean Under- too close to bet it though. Went 0-2 as a favorite last year, but 8-2 ATS as a dog. WIll play them as dogs to cover (other than the Bama game).
Official Plays
Mike –
Auburn Over 7.5 -160
South Carolina Over 7.5 +106
LSU Over 8.5 -130 (to make playoffs +125)
Georgia to make SEC CHamp Game +155
Stefan
Auburn Ov 7.5 -160
Kentucky Under 4.5 -104
Texas AM Over 7.5 -170
Tennessee Under 8.5 -128
Texas Under 9.5 +159
Eric
Georgia Over 9.5 -168
Georgia win SEC +310, Sidepiece, natty +700
LSU to make the playoff +125
Ole Miss over 8.5 wins
Ole miss to make playoff +175
Texas A&M to make playoff +215
Tiers:
Tier 1 – 9.5 Wins
Georgia 9.5
Alabama 9.5
Texas 9.5
Ole Miss 8.5
LSU 8.5
Tennessee 8.5
Tier 2
Auburn 7.5
Missouri 7.5
South Carolina 7.5
Texas A&m 7.5
Oklahoma 6.5
Everyone Els
Florida
Arkansas
Kentucky
Vandy
Miss State
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